Experienced bettors and beginners alike regularly place bets on basketball match favorites. To increase their chances of winning, cappers use various betting strategies, most commonly the “chase on the favorite” and the “handicap on the favorite’s result.”
NO BETTING STRATEGY GUARANTEES 100% PROFIT!
Categories of Favorites
In basketball, you can bet on a clear favorite or a marginal favorite. A clear favorite is typically a team that’s a tournament leader facing an outsider or a higher-level team playing a much weaker one. A marginal favorite is found in evenly matched games — teams of similar caliber or those close in the standings — where the favorite is usually the home team or the one with a better head-to-head record.
You can bet on favorites in several categories:
- In-play (“live”) — bets made during the game while it’s still ongoing.
- Pre-match — bets made before the game starts.
- On the full-time result — bets placed on the overall outcome of the match (after regulation and overtime).
- On quarter outcomes — betting on one, two, three, or all four quarters.
Each category offers multiple markets, with the most popular being “match result,” “individual total,” and “handicap.”
How to Choose Matches for Betting
When selecting a basketball game, it’s crucial to correctly identify which team is the clear or marginal favorite. Several criteria help in analysis:
- Current league position — teams higher in the standings are usually in better form and more likely to win.
- Head-to-head record — a team that has won 70% of its last five encounters has a statistical advantage.
- Motivation — if a team has already achieved its tournament goals, it may not play at full intensity.
- Injuries — the absence of key players reduces the favorite’s chances of success.
- Home-court factor — playing at home increases the likelihood of victory.
“Chase” Strategy on the Favorite, Against the Favorite, and the Fibonacci System
The “chase” (Martingale) strategy involves a series of bets on the outcome of basketball matches. Bets are made on a preselected market — either for the favorite or against them (by backing the underdog). This method allows the bettor to recover previous losses after the first successful wager in the series.
Key rules for using the “chase” strategy:
- Determine your bankroll before starting the betting series.
- The first bet should not exceed 1–2% of your total bankroll.
- Bet on outcomes with odds no lower than 2.0.
- After each loss, double the next stake.
- End the series after the first winning bet.
The Fibonacci system differs from the standard chase by calculating each subsequent stake as the sum of the previous two losing bets.
Handicap on the Favorite
It’s recommended to bet on the smallest available handicap value in the match line — this provides lower odds but a higher probability of winning.
A handicap bet on the favorite is negative. This market assumes that the favorite will win by a margin greater than the handicap set by the bookmaker. For example, a bet marked as “F2 -9.5” means that the second team must win by at least 10 points.
This strategy carries certain risks, primarily when the bookmaker does not offer a realistic handicap line for the likely score margin.
For example, before Game 2 of the NBA playoff series between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Chicago Bulls.
In this matchup, Milwaukee is the favorite. The Bucks finished second in the regular season (Chicago was sixth). During the season, Milwaukee beat Chicago twice (118:112 and 94:90) and also won the first playoff game (93:86).
Bookmaker Paribet offers the smallest handicap at “-9.5.” However, Milwaukee’s recent wins over Chicago were by +6, +4, and +7 points, making it unlikely that they’ll win by 10 or more.
Accumulator Bets on the Favorite
These bets can be placed on one or multiple markets. An accumulator wins only if all included single bets win. If even one loses, the entire accumulator is lost. The main advantage of this strategy is the increased total odds, formed by multiplying all individual bet odds together.
NO BETTING STRATEGY GUARANTEES 100% PROFIT!
Conclusion
The basketball favorite betting strategy has both strengths and weaknesses. The main advantages include:
- Ability to use both “single” and “accumulator” bets on favorites.
- Flexibility to bet across different markets and modes (live or pre-match).
- Potential for consistent profit from moderate odds — statistically, favorites win 80% of matches against underdogs.
- Opportunity to bet on both clear and marginal favorites.
However, there are two significant drawbacks. The first is the risk of upsets — when an underdog beats the favorite. The second disadvantage is detailed in the “Handicap on the Favorite” section above.
