Foul betting is gaining increasing popularity today. That’s why many bookmakers now include this market in their football match listings. More and more players are placing such bets because complete and free statistics on this metric have become available online. Why not use this data to track trends among different clubs and players? Let’s break down what fouls in football mean in sports betting and whether this market is profitable in the long run.
What is a foul in football and how is it counted in bookmaker statistics
A foul (from the English *foul*) is a violation of the rules that can be deliberate or accidental. In football, such infringements can take various forms:
- kicking, holding, pushing, and other unauthorized forms of contact;
- handball;
- offside position;
- unsporting behavior, time-wasting, arguing with the referee;
- leaving the pitch without permission, throwing the ball away, tampering with equipment (for example, removing the shirt while celebrating a goal), and others.
The only person who makes the final decision to award a foul is the match referee, although assistant referees on the sidelines and VAR specialists can signal infringements and give recommendations.
Types of foul bets
When choosing a foul betting strategy, first study which options online bookmakers offer in their listings:
- basic outcome – which team commits more fouls or a draw;
- double chance – 1X, 12, X2;
- totals – overall or individual team totals;
- handicaps – usually only European half or whole numbers are offered;
- odd/even total;
- by halves.
Some bookmakers also offer exclusive markets, such as the number of fouls by a certain minute. But these are rare and usually available only for top matches.
Example of a bet and calculation
Since foul bets are calculated the same way as standard markets, let’s look at a simple example. In the Nations League, Armenia faces Ukraine. One bookmaker expects Armenia to commit slightly more fouls. So we choose a handicap bet on the first team for fouls (-1.5) at odds of 2.00.
To win and double the stake, the home team must commit at least two more fouls than the opponent. In any other case, the bet loses.
Specifics of foul betting: what to consider when choosing a bet
Here are some recommendations for selecting foul betting options:
- The foundation of analysis is team statistics. Look for correlations between the number of fouls in head-to-head matches and in each team’s last four to five games against other opponents.
- The referee’s style of officiating. Not everything depends on the teams. Some referees call fouls for minor contact that others might ignore. Therefore, always study the statistics of the referee assigned to the match.
- The motivation of the teams. Motivation may not only be tournament-related. In many countries and competitions, there are so-called derbies, where teams have a fierce rivalry. Such matches often involve rough play, intentional fouls, and provocations.
- Balance of strength and playing style. For example, if the favorite is a fast, technical team, it’s logical to bet that the underdog will commit more fouls.
- Individual player tendencies. Pay close attention to defensive midfielders. Their role often includes breaking up attacks through small tactical fouls and holding. If such a player is on the pitch, the likelihood of more fouls increases.
Foul betting strategies
There are various foul betting strategies in football. You can use a Martingale approach, bet on or against favorites, etc. Over the long run, small markets are mainly used by experienced bettors. Let’s outline two key principles that can form the basis of a long-term approach:
- Pre-match analysis is based on detailed statistical data. If you use a pre-match strategy focusing on winner, handicap, or total, prioritize statistical analysis. The fouls market responds well to established trends.
- In live betting, wager only on matches you are watching in real time. This allows you to spot valuable odds. Game dynamics often influence the level of aggression from both teams.
For example, the underdog takes the lead. Naturally, the favorite starts attacking more actively and increasing the tempo. This means the defending team will foul more often — so you can bet on their win in the fouls market (possibly with a negative handicap) or on a high individual total.
Why is strategic foul betting suitable mainly for experienced bettors? Because bookmakers apply a high margin to small markets. In this case, a 10% commission is considered low.
For most bookmakers, it’s around 13–15% pre-match. Overcoming such a margin in the long run is extremely difficult — you need to be a true expert and win the majority of your bets.
Alternatives to this small market
What if such a high margin doesn’t suit you or your bookmaker doesn’t offer this market? Consider other mid-level markets:
- offsides;
- yellow cards;
- corner kicks;
- red cards.
These markets are also closely tied to long-term statistical trends but appear more often in the listings of most online bookmakers.
Pros and Cons
The main advantage of the foul small market is its analytical depth. This means an experienced bettor with a high success rate in this market can often find value odds. Bookmakers frequently make mistakes when pricing such low-demand markets.
Therefore, even if you’re a beginner but planning a long-term betting career, try studying foul statistics and making small wagers while developing your own strategy.
However, be prepared to face certain difficulties — high bookmaker margins and the lack of this market in many listings. You’ll need to find a bookmaker that offers a wide range of small markets for matches of various levels.
