The bookmaker’s line is a kind of financial exchange where current odds are constantly changing. A player planning to bet regularly must understand the nature of betting odds movement.
A drop in odds is an important indicator that points to financial or sporting reasons. Professional bettors always take falling odds into account when using strategies in football, tennis, hockey, and other sports betting. Let’s analyze the specifics of this phenomenon and ways to use it to improve betting results.
What are falling odds?
The meaning of the term is contained in its name — a bookmaker’s odd, under the influence of certain factors, decreases.
For example, a bookmaker set the odds for an underdog’s victory at 4.50. But a few hours before the game, it dropped noticeably — first to 3.40, and then to 2.90. Why did this happen? What caused such significant changes?
Reasons for bookmaker odds drops
Often, a sharp change in odds occurs because the bookmaker initially set them incorrectly. For technical reasons, the bookmaker may offer an inflated multiplier on an outcome. Such errors are precisely what so-called “value bettors” look for — professionals who play on overvalued odds.
However, bookmaker analysts quickly find and correct these mistakes, leading to a reduction in odds.
The case described above is a technical one. But we’re more interested in the following reasons for odds drops:
- Fan overload. The bookmaker protects itself from excessive losses and automatically lowers odds on outcomes attracting large amounts of money. This most often happens at major tournaments where national teams compete — World and continental football championships. In the NHL and NBA, overloads are also common when home fans place many bets on their favorite teams. Therefore, there are hockey and basketball betting strategies based on going against odds movement and giving the away underdog a handicap.
- Professional betting surges. Here, it’s not fans but expert handicappers who are responsible. They either bet large sums themselves on a chosen outcome or sell their predictions to clients who then place significant amounts of money.
- Fixed matches. Sharp drops in odds are often key indicators of match-fixing. Organizers of rigged games place large sums on the prearranged outcome, which drives the odds down.
- Bookmakers’ insider information. Bookmaker analysts learn facts that significantly affect the outcome of a match — for example, news about a key player’s poor condition. This often leads to sharp odds changes. It’s especially important in individual sports or team disciplines heavily influenced by personal skill. For instance, when betting on volleyball, it’s crucial to know the form and condition of the team’s main libero, outside hitter, or setter.
How to find falling odds?
There are two practical ways to find dropping bookmaker odds — manual and automatic. The first is suitable if a player tracks odds movements for one or several specific matches. The bettor uses this factor as an additional criterion in pre-match analysis.
If a handicapper wants to cover as many sporting events as possible, it makes sense to use automated online scanners. Free web services track sharp odds changes, but professional tipsters usually use paid software.
Such specialized programs provide broader bookmaker and match coverage and offer additional functionality, up to automating bet placement in an online bookmaker.
Betting strategies for falling odds
Players tracking falling odds usually apply two basic sports betting strategies:
- Following the odds drop. The principle here is that a falling odd means professionals are betting on that outcome. Using odds scanners, such bettors often look for fixed matches. Suitable games include low-tier tournaments and small-market bets. This strategy is most often used in sports such as table and lawn tennis, volleyball, handball, etc. You should track semi-professional competitions and pro tours.
- Betting against the odds drop. In this case, the bettor looks for fan overloads. It’s best to focus on main markets — match winner, double chance, or underdog handicap. The logic is simple: because of many fan bets on the favorite, the odds for the underdog’s victory increase significantly. Even if the weaker team doesn’t win, careful pre-match analysis may show that there won’t be a blowout.
It’s reasonable to give the underdog a handicap using a value odd.
Pros and Cons of betting on falling odds
Analyzing and using the factor of falling odds is an effective tool in the work of professional bettors. Understanding the nature of this process adds another layer of justification to a sports prediction. Moreover, automated monitoring of sharp bookmaker odds changes allows easy detection of value bets and arbitrage opportunities.
However, you can’t simply bet by following falling odds — this will lead to a bankroll drain. It’s crucial to understand why the odds changed in each specific case.
