A “goal with a header” bet belongs to the category of so-called small markets — niche betting options that are not particularly popular among bettors. This lack of demand is largely due to the fact that most sportsbooks do not include this market in their standard lines, or offer it only for top-tier matches. In this article, we’ll explain what a “goal scored with a header” bet means and whether it makes sense to use this uncommon market on a regular basis.
How It Appears in the Bookmaker’s Line
The basic form of this bet is “Goal Scored by Header – Yes/No.” That’s exactly how it’s usually presented in the betting line. The bettor selects a match and wagers on whether at least one goal in the game will be scored with a header.
It doesn’t matter which team scores or how many goals are scored this way. Pay attention to the conditions specified in the bookmaker’s rules for this market:
- The last touch before the ball crosses the goal line must be made with the player’s head, and that player must be officially credited as the goal scorer in the match report.
- Own goals are not counted.
Typical odds for this small market: “Yes” — from 2.50 to 3.00; “No” — from 1.30 to 1.80. Because the market is niche, the minimum bookmaker margin starts around 8%, with the average ranging between 10–12%.
Another common version of the header goal bet is whether the first goal in the match will be scored by header. In this case, there’s no “Yes/No” alternative — you can only bet on the positive outcome, typically priced around 5.50–6.00.
Occasionally, international bookmakers offer combined markets that include header goals, such as:
- Header goal before the Nth minute;
- Header goal + Over/Under (2.5);
- Header goal and home team to win.
Such combined markets are usually found only with major international bookmakers — and only for high-profile matches.
Specifics of Betting on Header Goals
The key feature of this small market is its weak correlation with statistical trends. Overall, about one in six goals in football is scored with a header. In top leagues, this percentage usually stays within 16–18%, and in some seasons can exceed 20%.
However, this doesn’t mean that choosing a league with a high percentage of header goals automatically leads to profit.
For instance, in the German Bundesliga, the percentage of header goals is relatively modest — around 15–16%. But because of the league’s high scoring rate overall, the number of header goals per season is comparable to other top leagues.
What to Consider When Choosing a Match
Focus less on general statistics and more on analyzing specific match characteristics:
- Attacking style of the favorite. If a team relies heavily on wing play, frequent crosses, and numerous corners, the chances of a headed goal increase significantly.
- Presence of a striker known for scoring headers. Height isn’t everything. Cristiano Ronaldo (187 cm) and Robert Lewandowski (185 cm) are among the most prolific header scorers in history. It’s about positioning, anticipation, and finishing ability.
- Well-rehearsed set pieces. Choose teams that often execute high crosses from corners and free kicks. In such teams, even tall defenders can frequently score headers.
- Attacking mindset of both teams. Matches featuring open, offensive football naturally produce more headed goals. In contrast, defensive teams content with a draw or minimal win rarely create such chances.
Pros and Cons
It’s difficult to draw definitive conclusions about this niche market. It comes with several downsides:
- High bookmaker margin — 8–14% in pre-match.
- Weak connection to overall statistical indicators.
- High degree of randomness.
To bet on this market consistently, you need to be a true enthusiast of aerial play, crosses, and corner kicks. However, if that’s your expertise, you can take advantage of odds between 2.60 and 2.90, selecting matches with a strong potential for headed goals and finding value where others don’t look.
