Betting on Penalties: Strategies to Win Big!

A penalty kick is one of the strictest punishments in football matches. According to statistics, about 80% of all penalties result in goals. For bettors, penalty betting in football is another opportunity to test their luck. Let’s examine the specifics of this betting market, find out whether there are truly profitable penalty betting strategies, and determine how to choose the best bookmakers for betting on penalties.

Types of penalty bets offered by bookmakers

Most online bookmakers limit themselves to standard markets, such as whether a penalty will occur in the match or not, along with odds on whether a penalty goal will be scored.

However, some bookmakers offer a much more detailed and interesting lineup. Let’s take a top match such as “AC Milan vs Inter Milan” in Italy’s Serie A as an example.

The bookmaker 1xBet offers the following markets related to our topic:

1. Penalty (P). Yes – 2.91, No – 1.34. Here, you simply need to predict whether a penalty will occur during the match.
2. Will there be a missed penalty? Yes – 8.50, No – 1.04. This is a more exotic option, but the odds are significantly higher.
3. Penalty and sending-off. Yes – 8.70, No – 1.05. Both events must occur in the match. In some bookmakers, these two actions must be connected — i.e., the red card and penalty result from the same foul. In our case, this is not required. Other combinations are also available, such as “P or Red,” “Without P but with Red,” or “With P but no Red.”
4. Team 1 (similarly Team 2) will score from a penalty. Will take and score – 5.50, will take and miss – 14.00. Note that there is no option for the team not to take a penalty — only situations involving an actual attempt are considered.
5. Total penalties for Team 1 (similarly Team 2). Over 0.5 – 5.3, Under 0.5 – 1.16. Essentially, this market predicts whether a specific team will be awarded a penalty.
6. The first goal will be scored from a penalty – odds 7.00.

As we can see, there are quite a few penalty betting options, with fairly high odds that make the market attractive. But is it realistically possible to profit in the long run on these types of bets?

Selecting a match for penalty betting

To increase your chances of success, you need to choose matches wisely, taking into account overall and team-specific statistics. Experienced handicappers even look at the forwards known for creating dangerous chances inside the box. Let’s review the key parameters.

Choosing by leagues

If a player plans to bet regularly and use a long-term penalty strategy, it’s best to focus on leagues with high penalty frequency. Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Portugal are good options. In these countries, the average number of penalties per game rarely drops below 0.35 per season.

In contrast, referees in the English Premier League or German Bundesliga tend to award penalties less frequently. The average figure there is 0.25 per game. In the Russian Premier League, the average is about 0.30 per match.

Choosing by teams

When it comes to individual clubs, statistics can be more revealing. Pay attention to the following:

1. The number of penalties awarded in the last 10–30 matches for each team. Consider both penalties earned and conceded. This helps assess the team’s attacking sharpness and defensive discipline.
2. Head-to-head history. Review up to 10 recent meetings. While these are situational, a high number of penalties over time may indicate a consistent pattern.
3. Forwards who frequently draw fouls. Favor teams with strikers known for aggressive play inside the penalty area.

To implement a consistent strategy, it’s best to build a list of 20–30 suitable teams. Track transfers and adjust your list according to changes in key attacking players or defenders prone to fouls.

Factors that increase the likelihood of a penalty

Here are the main criteria used to identify matches with a higher chance of penalties. Consider the following:

1. Referee statistics. Since the introduction of VAR, officiating has become more objective. However, each referee still has their own style. Always study referee data.
2. Motivation of the teams. When one side desperately needs a win, the intensity of attacks and the likelihood of fouls in the box increase.
3. Presence of aggressive forwards or defenders who commit frequent fouls. Such data can be easily found on specialized statistical platforms.
4. Rivalry history. Emotional derbies often lead to more fouls, making penalties more likely in these matches.

With experience, you can develop your own set of criteria for evaluating and analyzing this market before each match.

There are no objective or guaranteed strategies for this betting market. Sometimes intuition, combined with a deep understanding of football, works best.

Key to Successful Penalty Bets

If you rely solely on luck in such an unpredictable market as penalties, you’re likely to lose in the long run. It’s important to have a clear strategy and stick to it. The following three flat-bet strategies are the most common:

1. Betting on a penalty to occur. Average odds of 3.00–3.50 require that every third bet wins. With careful match selection, experienced bettors can achieve this ratio.
2. Betting on no penalties. Here, odds are around 1.30–1.35. You need at least four out of five bets to win to stay profitable.
3. Betting on missed penalties. With odds starting at 8.00, you can afford 6–7 losing bets per winning one. However, this is a highly risky, lottery-style strategy.

Martingale (chasing) strategy

With average odds of 3.10–3.40, progressive betting systems can be effective. For example, increasing each subsequent stake by 1.5× can cover previous losses and still yield profit.

A possible sequence might look like this:

$10 – $15 – $22.50 – $33 – $49, etc.

As with any chase system, there’s always a risk of a long losing streak. However, unlike classic Martingale, doubling is not required here. Such a strategy is suitable only for experienced bettors.

First, ensure you can effectively identify matches for penalty bets. Only then use this method. Ideally, at least one in every five bets should win.

How to choose a bookmaker for penalty betting

Penalty bets are not among the most popular bookmaker markets. Some limit themselves to the basic “yes/no” option.

When choosing a bookmaker, consider the following:

• availability of the penalty market across a wide range of tournaments and leagues;
• more than just “yes/no” options — additional variations are a plus;
• moderate bookmaker margin – around 8–12%;
• reliability – preferably a licensed operator.

Pros and Cons of penalty betting