A small bet size, minimal risk of loss, the ability to predict the winner of a sporting event, and a guaranteed profit — these are four parameters attractive to both novice and experienced bettors.
You can combine all four of these parameters in a single wager using the “Arbitrage Betting” (Surebets) strategy.
The “Arbitrage” Strategy
The essence of the strategy lies in placing two bets with different bookmakers on opposite outcomes of the same sporting event. To ensure a guaranteed profit, the odds for each outcome must both be greater than 2.0.
How to Identify an Event Suitable for Arbitrage
You can determine a suitable sporting event using the formula: (1/ODD1) + (1/ODD2) = V, where:
- V – the resulting value, which must be less than 1;
- ODD1 and ODD2 – the odds for the first and second (opposite) outcomes of the sporting event.
Pros and Cons of the Arbitrage Strategy
The advantages include no need for lengthy analysis of sports results, team, or player form, and the ability to guarantee a small but consistent profit.
The disadvantages of the strategy include:
- The need to use a large bankroll to achieve significant profit;
- The time required to find suitable events with proper odds;
- The possibility of account suspension by the bookmaker.
How to Calculate Arbitrage Stakes
When placing such bets, it is recommended to use the formula: (1/ODD/V) × B = S, where:
- S – the stake amount;
- B – the bankroll allocated for the arbitrage bet;
- V – the resulting value of the arbitrage (from the formula above);
- ODD – the odds for the event outcome.
Using this formula, the bettor can calculate the optimal stake sizes for both opposing outcomes.
Example of an Arbitrage Bet
A bettor decides to use 20 USD for arbitrage betting. He selects a match between two evenly matched football teams. One bookmaker offers odds of 2.11 on Over 2.5 goals, while another bookmaker offers odds of 2.07 on Under 2.5 goals.
After calculating (1/2.11) + (1/2.07) = 0.957, the bettor confirms that this event is suitable for an arbitrage opportunity.
To determine the stake sizes, he performs the following calculations:
- (1 ÷ 2.11 ÷ 0.957) × 20 dollars = 9.90 dollars (stake on Over 2.5);
- (1 ÷ 2.07 ÷ 0.957) × 20 dollars = 10.10 dollars (stake on Under 2.5).
The match ends 3:1. The first bet wins. The bettor’s net profit amounts to 0.90 dollars (9.90 dollars × 2.11 = 20.89 dollars; 20.89 dollars − 20 dollars = 0.90 dollars).
