There are dozens of interesting basketball betting strategies that can realistically generate profit over the long run. However, any such betting system should be approached with a healthy dose of skepticism. We recommend testing any strategy in virtual mode first to assess whether it can actually yield a profit.
At one point, the “7 Shots” basketball betting strategy became popular on social media and in messenger channels. Let’s break down what it is and whether it makes sense to use it in practice.
What is “7 Shots”?
In fact, “7 Shots” was not originally a betting system but a themed Telegram channel offering various basketball-related betting products. The project promised users substantial winnings through exclusive proprietary strategies.
It was another channel from the notorious company “Khochu Prognoz” (“I Want a Prediction”). Between 2018 and 2020, “KP” gained massive hype by selling inexperienced bettors all sorts of “sure-win” betting systems and bot programs for generating predictions.
Over time, both “KP” and “7 Shots” predictably collapsed after gaining a reputation on betting forums as outright scammers and fraudsters. However, the name “7 Shots” stuck as one of the strategies they promoted.
The essence of the proposed strategy
The system involves placing a live bet on the total over in a quarter. The basic conditions for placing such a bet are as follows:
- in the quarter, the foul count is at least 4:4 — meaning that the next foul by either team will result in free throws rather than a sideline inbound;
- the weighted average total has dropped due to low scoring in that quarter;
- you place a bet on the weighted total over, expecting scoring to increase due to the upcoming free throws.
According to its creators, the “7 Shots” strategy is based on the idea that bookmaker software does not factor in the “bonus situation” when recalculating the weighted total.
The term “bonus situation” in basketball describes a scenario where both teams have reached the limit of team fouls — every subsequent foul (except offensive ones) results in free throws.
However, in practice, this approach turned out to be, to put it mildly, flawed. Bookmaker analysts do take into account that in the closing minutes of quarters, teams tend to score more points, which is why odds for high totals are adjusted accordingly and become less profitable.
How can free throw statistics help?
The strategy’s authors developed an entire theory around it, which included multiple components:
- selecting appropriate leagues and teams;
- analyzing foul statistics and free throw success rates;
- assessing team activity in the closing minutes of quarters;
- considering individual player statistics, etc.
It was assumed that an ordinary bettor would find it difficult to account for so many factors and calculate in real time when to place a bet. That’s where the “7 Shots” channel team stepped in.
The channel admin offered users to buy an online bot that would calculate everything automatically for selected matches and send a signal when to place a bet. Initially, the program cost 100 USD, then 70 USD, and the price kept dropping over time.
This model was typical of all fraudulent “KP” projects. They would first hype up a “super-bot,” attract attention, gradually lower the price, and eventually disappear — only to launch a new channel and offer another “guaranteed win” product to naive users.
Bankroll management advice
Interestingly, the creators of such strategies always devoted much attention to bankroll management. On one hand, they advised playing with a conservative flat betting system to avoid losing the bankroll quickly. On the other, they claimed that to see any meaningful profit, one needed an initial bankroll of 1,000-3,000 USD.
Over time, players ended up in the red for a simple reason: bookmaker margin ate up their profits. Don’t forget that in live basketball betting, the margin typically ranges from 10% to 18%. No bankroll management method can protect you from inevitable losses with such a strategy.
Pros and cons of the “7 Shots” basketball strategy
“7 Shots” was yet another fraudulent hype project from the infamous “Khochu Prognoz.” The downside of this strategy is obvious — it doesn’t work, as it’s based on false assumptions.
The upside, however, is that “KP” serves as a good reminder never to blindly trust “internet experts” or pay for “sure-win” systems. Effective betting strategies are built on sound mathematical and statistical principles, not on the fantasies of self-proclaimed “specialists.” Always approach such “schemes” with skepticism and test any strategy yourself first — ideally in a virtual, risk-free mode.
